beta release:
It should in general work, but for some classes/sets there might be still issues, as only a small fraction has been tested yet. Please report bugs or feature requests in the comments.


Info Update 32: Something seems to be wrong with Sorc pets when major savagery is active via potion. Real crit chance is around 10% higher compared that what is reported by the game/libCombat. This will cause high "luck" values for stam sorcs.

Crit cap warning moved to stand-alone addon:
https://www.esoui.com/downloads/info3243-Overcrit.html

Info

Computes exactly how lucky a parse was regarding critical strikes and returns a single number.
This makes it easier to compare different setups, eliminating the variance coming from critical strike luck.



The main panel shows the following stats:

DPS: actual DPS / expected mean DPS (time in seconds)
Luck: luck (x expected DPS standard deviation)


for which:

actual DPS - expected mean DPS = luck * expected DPS standard deviation


The luck number is:
  • +3: very lucky
  • +2
  • +1
  • 0: neutral
  • -1
  • -2
  • -3: very unlucky

Roughly 95% of parses should result in luck numbers between -2 and +2.

So with the same setup and rotation, you can easily reach

actual DPS = expected mean DPS + 2 * expected DPS standard deviation

but will probably stay below

actual DPS = expected mean DPS + 3 * expected DPS standard deviation

when trying a few more times.
If you use random proc sets, ther variance will be higher, but taking this into account in the computation is probably a nightmare and I don't plan to do this...


The addon needs to learn whether a damage event can actually critically strike or not, so whenever new skills are used, it needs a short training phase, during which a (???) is added to denote numbers are not accurate in this case.
In most cases, training phase should be completed after one dummy parse or even faster.



Detailed explanation

the "luck" number is the difference of actual DPS to the mean of the expected sum of Bernoulli random variables for all damage events divided by their standard deviation. This takes into account the different damage the abilities do: e.g., if your critical chance is 60%, getting 70% critical strikes for blastbones counts more than 70% critical strikes for degeneration. Stats are provides by libCombat, if backstabber is used, enemies are assumed to be always flanked. In this early beta version, only single target fights provide an accurate result. Fights with multiple targets will be fixed in a future version, flanking can not be determined currently due to API limitations. Very short fights can also result in weird numbers. If the addon is not updated after an API change, saved variables should be cleared.

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